This primary is "like 'Florida Man' having his own election" (axios.com)

Tuesday is the Florida Man primary . "It's really weird," one political pro said. Why it matters: Florida, MAGA's beating heart, is President Trump's home and was a top, successful target of his redistricting push to add more GOP-leaning congressional seats. Zoom in: What makes some of the contests stand out isn't their competitiveness — it's how they invoke the wacky Florida Man internet meme. These campaigns featured carpetbaggers, racial conflict, homophobia, struggling socialists, antisemitism, and even a scandal-plagued member of Congress slapped with a restraining order. "It's like Florida Man is having his own election right now," said a Republican political consultant financing one of the state's marquee races. Between the lines : As in the rest of the nation, Trump's approval ratings have declined in Florida. But it's a mostly Republican state, and oddsmakers and political insiders from both parties believe the odds still favor the GOP. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 1.5 million in Florida. In 2018, Trump's prior midterm, Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by 245,000. Tuesday's key showdowns in Florida: 1. The governor's race: Rep. Byron Donalds is expected to cruise to a win over his lesser-known and comparatively underfunded opponents in the Republican primary. Donalds is on the cusp of becoming the GOP's first Black nominee for Florida governor, and he'd be the favorite to become the Sunshine State's first Black governor . One of Donalds' opponents — James Fishback — has generated social media buzz and snagged mainstream media coverage, partly with racist dog whistles . Two weeks ago, a federal judge ordered Fishback to pay his former hedge fund $1.3 million in attorneys' fees and costs stemming from a contentious split. On the Democratic side, former Rep. David Jolly is outraising and outspending lesser-known rivals. Jolly, a former Republican, made the unorthodox decision to pick former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate long before the primary. 2. The Senate race: From Tallahassee to D.C., Democrats' consensus view is that the party's likely nominee, Alex Vindman, has run such a lackluster campaign that he may come uncomfortably close to his underfunded opponent, state Rep. Angie Nixon. A poll last month from a Democratic-leaning group, shared with Axios, showed Vindman up by just 10 points. Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, played a starring role in Trump's first impeachment trial. Vindman's twin brother, Eugene, is a House member from Virginia. Nixon recently joined the Democratic Socialists of America, long viewed as too far left for Florida. On the Republican side , Sen. Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general who was appointed to her seat last year, faces token opposition. Like Vindman, Moody faces internal party grumbling about running an uninspiring campaign . Unlike Vindman, Moody has more voters and, in the words of one top Senate GOP consultant, "she's going to